While the UAE is unlikely to see a major temperature spike, meteorologists say a strengthening El Niño could increase humidity, cloud formation and rainfall chances later this year.

Globally, the phenomenon is associated with an increased risk of droughts, heavy rainfall, heatwaves and marine heatwaves
PUBLISHED: Thu 16 Jul 2026 at 6:00 AMUPDATED: Thu 16 Jul 2026 at 8:15 AM
By:
Nandini Sircar
A climate phenomenon developing thousands of kilometres away in the tropical Pacific Ocean could soon have implications for weather conditions in the UAE.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has forecast a rapid transition into a strong El Niño event between July and September 2026, with ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific expected to warm significantly.

Recommended For You

Forecast models from leading global climate centres show strong agreement, giving scientists high confidence that El Niño will continue to strengthen through the Northern Hemisphere autumn.

Stay up to date with the latest news. Follow KT on WhatsApp Channels.

Globally, the phenomenon is associated with an increased risk of droughts, heavy rainfall, heatwaves and marine heatwaves, although its effects vary widely from one region to another.

As climate experts track the strengthening El Niño, UAE residents may not feel its full effects immediately. But by autumn, the global phenomenon could begin shaping local weather patterns, bringing stickier conditions, more clouds and a greater chance of rain across parts of the country.

Why El Niño matters for the UAE

Ahmed Habib, a meteorologist at the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM), on Wednesday told Khaleej Times that it is important to understand that El Niño is a global climate driver whose effects differ from region to region.

“El Niño is a global phenomenon and does not originate locally. Its effects differ depending on the region,” he said.

Pointing to East Asia, Habib noted that countries such as China, Japan, the Philippines and eastern parts of India have witnessed several tropical storms and cyclones in recent months.

“However, in our part of the Indian Ocean, there has been no tropical storm or cyclone activity this year. So, while El Niño is a global phenomenon, we need to understand how it specifically affects our region.”

Despite global weather shifts linked to El Niño, the UAE remained largely dry during May and June

“Global conditions may be changing, but local conditions are different. We currently do not have the factors needed for widespread cloud formation or rainfall,” Habib explained.

“The atmosphere over the UAE remains relatively dry, unlike parts of East Asia where higher humidity levels have been linked to El Niño conditions. Autumn could bring higher humidity, rainfall chances.”

While the current summer season is not expected to see major El Niño-related effects, meteorologists are watching the months ahead closely.

Habib said the phenomenon may become more influential over the UAE during autumn.

“From autumn, particularly in October and November, El Niño’s effect will be felt over our region. At present, during the summer season, its influence is stronger in East Asia than in West Asia.”

As the season changes, residents could notice more moisture in the atmosphere.

“In the UAE, this will increase the chances of rainfall.”

According to Habib, El Niño is unlikely to trigger a significant rise in temperatures across the country. Instead, its primary impact may be through increased atmospheric humidity, which can support cloud formation and raise the likelihood of rain events.

The forecast comes as parts of the UAE have experienced pockets of unsettled weather this week, although the country has seen relatively limited rainfall so far this summer. Moderate to heavy showers were recorded in parts of Al Ainon Wednesday, an unusual occurrence during the peak of the summer season.

“There is also a chance of rainfall on Thursday and Friday, particularly in the eastern and southern parts of the UAE. Rain could extend to some inland areas of Abu Dhabi, including Sweihan and Madinat Zayed,” Habib said.

On temperatures, he noted that the UAE has yet to record 50°C this summer.

“We expect temperatures to remain within the same range over the coming days — between 47°C and 49°C in inland areas, and between 41°C and 44°C along the coast,” he said.

https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/weather/el-nino-2026-pacific-climate-event-humidity-autumn-rain-uae-weather